In 2016 I believed (and still believe) that Hillary Clinton was perhaps the only Democratic candidate that Donald Trump could have beaten. Ultimately twenty states (totalling 125 electoral votes) were won by the Republican candidate by more than 10 percentage points, thirteen states (totalling 174 electoral votes) were won by the Democratic candidate by more than 10 percentage points. Seven states were decided by a margin of between 1 and 5 percentage points (three totalling 55 electoral votes were won by Trump and five totalling 25 electoral votes were won by Clinton).
The elections was determined by the results in three states providing 46 electoral votes that Trump won by a TOTAL of less than 60,000 votes). Michigan, 0.23% (10,704 votes) – 16 electoral votes Pennsylvania, 0.72% (44,292 votes) – 20 electoral votes Wisconsin, 0.77% (22,748 votes) – 10 electoral votes. I firmly believe that the results in those three states (and ultimately the election) was determined by former middle class unemployed union members who blamed Bill Clinton for the loss of their lifestyles and ultimately, they voted against Hillary in order to express their anger at Bill.
Many Democratic party primary voters believed that Sanders was “too radical” to win and settled for Hillary in what was ultimately a close nomination battle. Nobody can know for sure what would have happened if Sanders were the nominee in 2016 (I suspect he would have beaten Trump) but we know how the choice of Clinton turned out.
In 2020 I believed (and still believe) that almost any Democrat running could have beaten Trump. That was because Trump had proven himself to be a worse and more dangerous president than many had expected. I believed that everyone who voted for Hillary in 2016 would vote for any Democratic nominee in 2020 and there would be enough people who voted for Trump who would switch their vote to the Democratic nominee to determine the outcome. Ultimately the 2020 election was closer than I expected because Trump turned out nearly 9 million more voters than he had in 2016 but still Biden won by receiving almost 18 million more voters than Clinton won in 2016. Biden ultimately won the three close states (Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) that Trump had won in 2020 and also narrowly won two states (Arizona and Georgia) that had gone for Trump by less than 5 percent in 2016.
Democratic primary voters in large part chose Biden because they just wanted someone to beat Trump and settled on him after he won the South Carolina primary by an overwhelming margin and seemed to be the “choice”.
In 2024 I start out with the following assumptions. 1) I do not believe that Joe Biden will run for re-election. I am certain that he would be the nominee if he chose to run again but would then be the weakest possible candidate (similar to Hillary in 2016) who would be a risk to lose to Trump. 2) I don’t think that Kamala Harris will overwhelm the field and frighten away primary challengers should she choose to run for the nomination. 3) I think it is obvious that Donald Trump will run again and that no Republican will be able to seriously deprive him of the nomination.
Once again, I do not believe there are any (not a single one) voters who voted for Biden in 2020 who will vote for Trump in 2024 if there is a nominee other than Biden or Harris. I also think there are a good number of former Trump voters who will switch their vote to the Democrat specifically because of the January 6, 2021 coup attempt. Almost any Democrat will be able to win. I believe that Trump reached his ceiling of potential voters in 2020 and all the Democrats have to do is turn out the same number as voters as voted for Biden in 2020 and if they add a few Republicans who were sickened by January 6, the Democratic nominee in 2024 will win by an even larger margin than Biden won in 2020.
Candidates for the Democratic nomination will likely include many of the 2020 candidates Pete Buttegieg, Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren and most likely VP Harris, Cory Booker and probably Colorado’s multi-millionaire Governor Polils, and maybe Stacy Abrams of Georgia.