When I was young, and working constantly on high stress child protection cases I used to love skiing primarily because I found that on the mountain I had to focus on the single thing in front of me (not crashing into trees) and consequently I cleared my mind of all other stress. Along with the fresh air and beautiful views it was my bliss.
Driving long distance is sometimes the exact opposite. I pay attention to the roads and the traffic and all that stuff but mainly I listen to music or let my mind wander. If I were sitting at home “just” listening to music and thinking it would feel like wasting my time, but on a long road trip it is ok.
Number one thing about Manchin is that Democrats in the House and Senate seem to believe that he made an explicit promise to Joe Biden that if the progressives allowed a vote and passed the hard infrastructure bill he would ultimately come around after negotiating the details to allow them to pass a 1.775 trillion dollar human infrastructure bill. (aka build back better). Manchin never acknowledged that publicly but Biden gave that specific assurance to the House Progressives and now the Democratic Caucus (in both the House and the Senate) feel that Manchin broke his promise. That’s never a good thing in Congress (or in most places in life) if the people that you deal with can’t trust you to keep your word.
Number two thing is I don’t think anything has really changed about the underlying negotiations that are going on between Manchin and Biden over the details of the bill that will ultimately be agreed to and passed. Manchin threw a fit (for reasons that I will describe below) and went on FOX news and announced that he would not vote for the bill. His exact language from a statement released on December 19 was : “I have always said, ‘If I can’t go back home and explain it, I can’t vote for it.’ Despite my best efforts, I cannot explain the sweeping Build Back Better Act in West Virginia and I cannot vote to move forward on this mammoth piece of legislation. ” His language on Fox news was “”When you have these things coming at you the way they are right now … I cannot vote to continue with this piece of legislation,” His statement (especially doing it on FOX) was a poke in the eye to Biden and the Democrats but it wasn’t really anything that new or different.
They are still negotiating. Manchin is an ass (make no mistake about that) but he is an elected US Senator and the Dems need his vote so he get to have this influence. Manchin hasn’t changed his commitment to a 1.75 trillion dollar (spent over ten years) price tag for the ultimate social spending bill that will pass through reconciliation. It will contain many (but not all) of the good programs that were in the version passed by the House (which itself was a big compromise down from earlier versions). The point of this post is not to discuss the value of the things that will be taken out of the current version to get Manchin’s vote any more than it is to discuss the important things (like universal health care) that never made it into the first proposal. Of course neither the current version of the BBB or the ultimate version that will be passed is good enough, but it will be a significant step forward in the march to a more just society and those who ignore that are wrong.
So here’s my sense of what happened. Biden and Manchin were negotiating and failed to reach a compromise agreement. Biden intended to release a statement saying that they were going to take a pause over the holiday and would hope to finalize an agreement after the new year. The statement contained a very mild reference to Senator Manchin by name : “In these discussions, Senator Manchin has reiterated his support for Build Back Better funding at the level of the framework plan I announced in September,” Biden said in his statement. “I believe that we will bridge our differences and advance the Build Back Better plan, even in the face of fierce Republican opposition.” “My team and I are having ongoing discussions with Senator Manchin; that work will continue next week,” he added.
Manchin apparently objected to the proposed statement because it named only him and his position was that either Senator Sinema too (as someone not yet on board with BBB) or that it leave his name out. When Biden’s staff went ahead and released the statement naming Manchin he went ballistic (on Fox). To me I think that reflects the fact that Manchin is feeling somehow vulnerable because of all of the pressure being put on him from constituents (which would suggest they should keep it up) but maybe it was just Manchin being petty about control. It was then after Manchin released his statement implying that he would vote no that Biden authorized a specific release accusing Manchin of going back on his word to the president, and vowing to press him to “honor his prior commitments and be true to his word.” In Washington speak that was calling Manchin a liar. Then “anonymous” sources disclosed that in “private” conversation with Democratic Senators Manchin had said that he worried about providing direct payments to low income parents because some would use the money to buy drugs instead of for the benefit of their children and that some would abuse the parental leave benefits to go hunting during deer season.
If you don’t think that was playing “hardball” please think again. Most interesting to me is that Manchin has not responded in anyway except apparently to resume negotiations with Biden. There is an old saying about congressional politics that “laws are like sausages, it is better not to see how they are made”. This nearly year long process to passing a social spending bill has indeed been ugly but we are getting to the end.
For those of you wondering, one of my points in all of this is to say that Manchin is clearly sensitive and responsive to the pressure on him that is negatively impacting his favorability in West Virginia.