By traditional metrics, the 2022 midterms may not be as bad as some fear for the slim Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. The Democrats currently have a narrow 9 vote margin in House and a literal tie in the Senate (broken only by VP Harris. 1) The party in power traditionally loses in the first midterm after the election of a new president. 2) President Biden’s current popularity is historically low for a first term president at this point. 3) The mood of the country is certainly disappointed in the state of the economy and the battle against COVID. 4)
Additionally, because of the Republican control of redistricting process in so many states and the new voter restriction laws being imposed in Republican controlled states many experts project the Republicans will gain the majority in both the House and Senate. I am not so sure for the following reasons.
It’s About The Swing States/Districts
The bottom line is that it doesn’t matter how people vote in States or Districts that are overwhelmingly Red or overwhelmingly Blue. Control of the US Senate will come down to the election in six states. Three are currently held by Democrats (Georgia, Arizona and Nevada) and three are currently held by Republicans (North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). By some measure (the new boundaries are still not clear in many states) there will be fewer than 50 competitive House seats. It simply doesn’t matter the which party does better than the other in turning out its base or drawing independents in the remaining 385 seats.
It’s Still All About Trump
First and most importantly, the election will likely be about former president Trump as much as it will be about president Biden. Trump is still fully in control of the Republican party and is intervening in primaries around the country In many instances he is ensuring that the Republican candidates will be those who are most loyal to him and often are damaged candidates (like Herschel Walker in Georgia) or extremists who are repeating Trump’s lie that he won and was cheated in 2020.
If the election is all (and only)) about Biden the Democrats will lose. If the election is primarily about Trump the Democrats will do better. If they were sane and strategic the Republicans would do their best to make the election only about Biden and keep quiet about Trump (as Glenn Youngkin managed to do in the off-year Virginia Governor’s race. However, Trump is a narcissist and is demanding attention and beginning his 2024 campaign.
Redistricting
Secondly, redistricting is really not going as badly as many imagine. That’s primarily because the Republicans already brazenly gerrymandered the process in states they controlled ten years ago so that this time all they can do is try to protect their incumbents rather than create additional new Republican districts. Additionally, the Democrats have been counter gerrymandering in a few states that they control (like New York) and will be picking up some previously Republican seats.
The January 6 Committee Report
The goal of the House January 6 Committee appears to be to have prime time public hearings in the last months before the 2022 elections. Committee member Jamie Raskin has recently said that he expects the hearings will “blow the roof off of the house”. Obviously, the committee report and conclusions is not likely to change the opinions of those who currently believe that the Trump really won the election, but it is likely to motivate the Democrats and terrify those who might be undecided going into the election. Underlying the election will be the threat that the Republicans (if they control congress in 2024) will be able to pull off the coup that they tried in 2020.
All in all, it is simply to early to predict how the 2022 midterm elections will play out. The Democrats need to establish an agenda promising what they will do if given a few more votes in the US Senate. They need also to draw out the Republicans about what they will do if in the majority. House Republican leader McCarthy is vowing “revenge” on the Democrats and some (like Senator Ted Cruz) are threatening to impeach Joe Biden just to get even for the impeachments of Trump.