We are now in the second month of the war with Iran and the question remains “How does this end?” Of course, it was obvious all along (perhaps to everyone but Trump and his acolytes) that the Iranian theocracy was not going to simply surrender. There wasn’t a chance that it would happen merely because Trump “threatened” mass destruction before starting the war, nor is it going to happen now. Let’s be clear about two things. 1. Iran has suffered enormous losses. Its top tiers of leadership have been killed and its military and industrial infrastructure destroyed. 2. Iran has grabbed a chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz and somehow neither Trump nor the “geniuses” who advise him anticipated this development.
If not for the chokehold on the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, it would have been easy for Trump to simply “declare” that Iran has agreed to all his terms for peace and promised to cease development of nuclear and ballistic weaponry. It would be similar to what he “accomplished” in Gaza where he announced that Hamas had agreed to surrender its weapons and give up power and return all of the hostages in return for Israel’s agreement to a ceasefire. (by the way – anyone out there notice that Hamas is still in power in Northern Gaza and has not surrendered its weapons)
Perhaps (hopefully) Iran will agree to free transit through the Strait in return for a cessation of the bombing. Of course, their promise of free passage through the strait will be no more believable than a promise by Trump to not resume the war when the mood strikes him. The alternative (which terrifies me) is that Trump will order some fashion of a land invasion with troops on the ground.
Perhaps the dumbest thing he could do would be to try to conquer Kharg Island where Iran stores up to 30 million barrels of oil and ships out 90 percent of its product. Of course the marines could occupy the island but what then? Once again Trump would be expecting Iran to surrender and agree to his demands in return for getting back the Island. However, those occupying US troops (ultimately a larger number than those necessary to conquer the Island) would be sitting ducks to Iranian missiles and drone attacks. In addition to rising prices (of everything effected by the cost of oil), soldiers would start coming home in body bags. Seven months before the midterm elections even Trump should be smart enough to know this is a bad idea.
An alternative would be to send in special forces on a focused mission to find and retrieve the enriched uranium (estimated to be nearly 1000 pounds) that Iran supposedly moved and buried before the attacks on its nuclear facilities last June. Retrieving the enriched Uranium would be a very complex and dangerous mission but if successful would be meaningful and allow Trump to truthfully proclaim that the war has accomplished something useful. Need II say it again, that would be a very complex and dangerous mission.
In the meanwhile, Israel has been methodically bombing strategic targets to prepare for the inevitable time when Trump gets tired of the war and “declares” victory. In addition to destroying Iran’s industrial base (and ability to quickly recover from the war) Israel appears to have been targeting the leadership and structure of the security forces that suppressed the previous uprisings by the Iranian population. Sooner or later Trump will inevitably declare victory and claim that all of his initial objectives have been achieved. Nobody can say with certainty who will be making decisions in Iran at that point so predicting their decisions seems difficult.
However, it is likely (and probably inevitable) that at some point the Iranian people will rise up again to test what is left of the Iranian Security forces and what (if any) protection Trump will offer them. THAT will be the real test.