There definitely is a blue wave coming (U.S. midterms coming in just 8 days) that seem certain to result in a significant Democratic majority in the House and perhaps a Democratic majority in the Senate. All of the signs are there. Incumbent President of the opposite party has historically low approval ratings and the out of power (Democratic) party is ahead in generic congressional polls by above 8 percent.
The only real variables at this point are how big the wave will be and where it will peak.
The most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll (Interview dates: October 16-19, 2026) http://Reuters Ipsos News Issue Survey October 2026 Topline_3.pdf has the generic democratic candidate leading the generic republican candidate by 11 points. Significantly though, the internals show that lead as 40-29 with 12 percent undecided and 15 percent not planning to vote. Separately, Donald Trump’s approval/disapproval rating is negative 30. (32 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval). Often in wave elections the undecideds vote with the wave so that margin might be even larger.
Those numbers, however, are nationwide and don’t reflect significant variation by regions. It may be counterintuitive but the anger against the Republicans is stronger in regions that voted for Trump in 2020 and tempered in regions that voted for Harris by disdain for the Democrats.
If they were consistent across the country, you could generally look state by state and district by district and assume the Democrats were going to win most races that were R + 7 or less with a likely gain of more than 20 seats in the House and the Democrats picking up only 2 seats (North Carolina and Maine) but failing to gain majority control of the Senate. However, the status really varies region by region (the Midwest is being hit very hard by fuel and diesel prices) and quality of candidates running (more about this below).
My predictions are as follows:
- The Dems will end up winning the House by a margin lower than the 41 seats gained in 2018 but will end up with a total number of seats higher than the 234 that they won in 2018 or the 233 that they won in 2006. This is because the Dems are starting these midterms only 4 seats short of a majority. They currently have 214 Dems in the House and I think they will pick up more than 20 additional seats. Hakeem Jeffries will have a strong majority to work with.
- The Dems are likely to win the contested Senate seats in North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska which would bring them to a 50-50 tie if every other incumbent wins. I think the Democratic candidates are likely to also win in Texas and Kansas due to the unique strength of the Democratic challenger and the remarkable weakness of the Republican candidate.
- The “wave” will knock out incumbent Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas and Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas. Both are remarkably bad candidates running against uniquely good challengers in a wave election. Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932 and Texas not since 1988. This will be the big news of the night. (Those two bring the Democrats up to a 52-48 lead)
- South Carolina is a deeply Republican state. Donald Trump won in 2024 by a margin of almost18 percent. Lindsay Graham won re-election in 2020 by a margin of 10.2 percent. His sister is an extremely unqualified candidate and news just broke of Lindsay having paid an underage male for sex while he was serving in the Senate. I think this might be the big surprise of the night.
Having Dr. Annie Andrews in the Senate for the next 6 years will be a wonderful thing. (this will bring the Democrats up to a 53-47 lead.
- In a normal year that would be it. However, if the wave is big enough it might also reach Nebraska and Iowa. I would love to see Angie Nixon win in Florida but my hopes are just not that big.
- Mississippi has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1982 (back when the racists in the South ran as Democrats) and it is hard to imagine Scott Colum beating Republican incumbent Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
- I simply do not know what will happen in Michigan and Maine. Michigan is currently a Democratic held state with Abdul El-Sayed in a close race with Mike Rogers. If El-Sayed loses it will reflect his failure to win back support from key black and Jewish voters. If he narrowly wins it will be because it is a wave year and wavering Democrats voted for him despite their misgivings. Maine is currently a Republican held seat with incumbent Susan Collins in a close race with challenger Troy Jackson. If Collins survives it will be because she has a reservoir of good will after years of service to the State and a reputation for being a moderate and because Jackson just isn’t/wasn’t a strong candidate. If she loses it will be primarily because of her vote to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court .
With Andrews winning in South Carolina the Dems will be at 53-47 so even if they lose both Michigan and Maine they will still be 52-48.
So here’s my prediction. The wave will be big. The Democrats will win control of the House with a pickup of at least 20 seats (probably more) ending with a strong majority of better than 235 – 200. The Dems will win control of the Senate with a pickup of between 5 and 8 seats.
Enjoy the good news. I still don’t think the Republicans are going to give up power and allow a peaceful transition. January 3, 2027 will be January 6, 2021 on steroids.