Often, re-election campaigns are referendums on the incumbent. Historically, incumbent Presidents who had an approval rating below 45 percent in June of their re-election year ended up losing and those with a rating above 46 percent won. President Biden’s approval rating sits at 40.4 percent according to the latest RCP average. If the election was simply a referendum on Biden he would lose. Almost any semi-reasonable Republican could have beaten him. Fortunately the Republican nominee is former President Trump. The last time a former President ran for election was Theodore Roosevelt in 1912. Roosevelt ran as a third part (Progressive) against his former Secretary of War William Howard Taft who had succeeded him and the two of them split the Republican vote and allowed Democrat Woodrow Wilson to win election with only 41.8 percent of the vote. Before that the only former President to win his party’s nomination to run was Grover Cleveland who defeated Benjamin Harrison in 1892.
Traditionally, a challenger with a disapproval rating above 50 percent simply cannot win an election. Donald Trump’s approval rating (RCP average) sits at only 42.5 percent favorable and 54.3 percent unfavorable. This is effectively a “choice” election with two candidates with such high unfavorable ratings that they should both be considered unelectable accept that they are running against each other. Enter the new phrase “Double Haters” to describe the 25 percent of the voters who reportedly have unfavorable opinions of both President Biden and former President Trump. Those double haters may end up deciding the election.
I am convinced that both of the candidates have a firm bottom of 40 percent of the vote. I suspect that Trump has a ceiling of about 47 percent (he got 46.9 percent of the vote against Biden in 2020 and 46.1 percent of the vote against Clinton in 2016). I suspect that Biden has a firm bottom pretty close to the 48 percent that voted for Hillary in 2016. We all know however that national popular vote totals will not determine the winner of the election it will be the swing voters in the less than 10 states that might go either way in the election. (Less than 5 months to go until election day 2024 – Left Coast View)
It is the decision of the small group of swing voters/double haters in those swing states that will determine the outcome of the election.
Hence the debate. It is scheduled for Thursday night June 27, 2024. This is the earliest date for a first presidential debate in modern history. The Kennedy/Nixon debate in 1960 was on September 26, and subsequently most of the past 8 cycles had a first debate near the end of September. The single Carter / Reagan debate in 1980 was held on October 28. By agreeing to a debate this early in the cycle (with only one more scheduled for September 10) both campaigns are hoping to lock in perspectives favorable to them.
Biden has a simple goal. Much of the criticism of him stems from his age and the questions of his competence to serve out four years. He needs to be on his game and showing mental acuity that will dispel concerns based on his obvious physical limitation. A single “senior” moment in which he forgets his train of thought or gets a name or place wrong will be highlighted repeatedly. Secondarily he would like to emphasize Trump’s responsibility for the Dobbs decision and the risk threatened by allowing Trump to replace Thomas and Alito with younger MAGA justices to cement in a right-wing court for the next 20-30 years.
Trump has an equally simple goal. Much of the criticism of him stems from his outrageous personal behavior (leading to court findings of sexual assault, defamation and false documentation of hush money payoffs to a porn star). I think he actually also has a problem with being cognitively limited as well as having trouble controlling his wild false statements and bad behavior. Biden insisted on rules requiring Trump’s mic to be shut off when it is nt his turn to speak but I wonder if Trump will still try to shout out (without mic) to interrupt Biden.
Trump will presumably try to irritate Biden’s “Irish” temper but trash talking Biden’s son Hunter and Biden in turn will try to provoke Trump by referring to this criminal conviction by a jury in New York and upcoming sentencing hearing.
I will be watching.