Conventional wisdom says that the Dems are doomed to suffer a severe midterm election defeat that will cost them control of both the House and the Senate.
After all – since 1938 the party of the incumbent president has lost seats in the House in every mid-term election except for two. In fact since World War II the President’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate. Generally, the size of the loss is dependent on the President’s popularity and the country’s general happiness with the state of the economy. Both factors bode poorly for the Democrats. Additionally, there was expectation that Republican’s ruthless (and anti-Democratic) use of the redistricting process in states that they control would help them further (as it clearly did in 2012. As I say in the title I’m not sure if this conventional wisdom is right this time.
These are the factors that I think will help the Democrats defy expectations in 2022.
- The Republicans were so ruthless and effective in their redistricting ten years ago that there was very little room for them to add seats. The best that they could do in most places was to solidify the districts that they had already controlled that were getting closer to being competitive.
- Redistricting (by both parties) has reduced the number of competitive seats dramatically. By most estimates there are only 40 House districts left that are legitimately competitive. (out of 435).
- Additionally of the 34 US Senate seat up for election only (at most) nine will be competitive and of them 4 are seats currently held by Democrats in states won by Biden in 2020 and 5 are seats currently held by Republicans (with 4 of them open seats because the incumbent is retiring)
Traditionally, the mid-terms are a referendum on the incumbent President and if 2022 was decided based only on President Biden’s popularity the Democrats would be at risk of a blowout. However, it is all but certain that former President Trump will impose on the narrative and make the election at least as much about him as anything else. It appears that in most places the winner of the Republican primary will be perhaps the Trumpiest of the candidates running. If the Democrats are lucky, the January 6 committee will be successful in using its planned prime time public hearings will be to put front and center the risk of having the Republicans in control of Congress in 2024 and most likely cause Trump himself to double down on his crazy.
If the election was truly a national election, I would assume conventional wisdom would hold and the election would be determined by turnout (with the Republicans motivated and the Dems not so much) but remember, the actual votes will only matter in the 40 competitive House seats and 9 competitive Senate seats. It doesn’t matter if the Trumpsters turn out in mass numbers in deep red states and deep red districts (or even if the Dems turnout in deep blue districts and in blue states). Alll that will matter will be the vote in those competitive districts and states. In those competitive places the Republicans are likely to be running the worst possible candidates and will be driving away independent (non Trumpster) voters who might otherwise vote Republican.
Things could change. The economy could be tanked. The world could be in war. Covid could be surging but….as things stand right now I think the Dems are actually likely to retain control of Congress.