As I have previously (and some would say frequently) said I believe that Donald Trump will announce that he is running for President in 2024 and Joe Biden will announce that he is not running. In my opinion it is only a question of when they will announce. In this post I will discuss who I consider to be the five strongest other candidates who will run for both parties’ nominations.
The Republicans:
If for some reason Trump does not run it will be a Republican free for all and many many other Republicans will jump in the race if for no other reason than to plant their flag for a chance to host a Fox News show. Several players have already made clear they will run anyway, and a few have already begun their shadow campaign:
5. Former Vice President Mike Pence. It is not clear to me why Pence will run except perhaps that he has a wish to be humiliate once more by the former President who tried to have him killed on January 6. Pence is taking the almost bizarre path of trying to base his campaign by appealing to the very MAGA voters that hate him for “betraying” Trump on January 6. Pence has never really had much of a constituency. He wasn’t even particularly popular as a one term governor of Indiana before being selected by Trump as his running mate in 2016. Pence is sort of like Rick Santorum without the gift of communication. His conservative and Christian beliefs seem sincere which in a more normal world might give him at least a base in the Republican party but that base has now become a Trump cult.
4. Former Governor Chris Christie. Christie’s main claim to fame (besides his involvement in the petty bridge scandal (The Bridge Scandal, Explained – The New York Times (nytimes.com) was his brilliant take down of Marco Rubio in the 2016 debate. (New Jersey Governor Chris Christie attacked F… -CBS News) Christie had hoped for a major role in the Trump administration but was apparently shut out due to the intervention of Jared Kushner who maintained a grudge because of Christie’s prosecution of Jared’s father Charles Kushner back in 2005 when Christie was a US Attorney. Christie will make things interesting if there are debates that allow him to focus his biting wit on Trump and may even spill some blood in the process but in the end, it is simply not Christie’s Republican party. There is no way a northeastern “moderate” can win the national nomination.
3. Virginia Governor Glen Youngkin. Youngkin will probably run because Virginia has a quirky law that limits it’s Governors to non-consecutive terms. He cannot run for re-election as Governor. His victory in Virginia over Clinton bagman Terry McAuliffe was considered to be the blueprint for a successful Republican win. He managed to maintain a very pleasant demeanor while throwing out red meat to the culture war fanatics (primarily running against the near mythical Critical Race Theory). Youngkin will of course try to thread that same needle in a 2024 presidential race by appealing to the Trumpists without being Trumpian.
2. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. DeSantis is almost the opposite of Youngkin. His appeal (to Trumpists) is that he is Trumpian without Trump’s personal scandals. He’s mean, he’s reactionary, he’s anti-choice. If he wins re-election as Florida’s Governor, he’ll be a winner. What’s not to like if you are a MAGA Republican? He is the only candidate who might be able to beat Donald Trump if conditions allow for Trump to be beaten.
1. Donald Trump. The original. The real Trumpist. All the baggage. Maybe there is something I am missing but I don’t see how Trump can lose the nomination as long as he has the support of his crazy base of cultists, and they control the rules of the GOP Nomination process.
The Democrats:
If for some strange reason Biden continues his run for re-election I expect that someone will challenge him from the left (the way Teddy Kennedy challenged a weakened Jimmy Carter in 1980, Eugene McCarthy challenged a weakened LBJ in 1968 and Estes Kefauver challenged a weakened Harry Truman in 1952. I expect that this challenger will beat Biden in New Hampshire (if it is still the first primary state) and then Biden will drop out and the other bigger names will jump in. In any even whether the campaign begins in January 2023 or March 2024 it will require the winning candidate to have the ability to put together a campaign structure and raise massive amounts of money rather quickly.
5. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttegieg. It’s been said that Buttegieg has been running for President since nursery school. He’s got the outline of a campaign structure and a base of support left over from his 2020 campaign. He will have the advantage of no longer being dismissed as merely the mayor of the tiny city of South Bend, Indiana. He has even gone so far as to move with his family and change his voter registration to Michigan which is in the running to be one of the early primary states. He will certainly be a stronger candidate in 24 than he was in 20 but I suspect that he will not be the only married white gay man with children to be running for President.
4. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar. Klobuchar also will be a stronger candidate then she was in 2020. The base of the Democratic party however is the black south and the young progressives, and I simply don’t see how Klobuchar appeals to either of them.
3. California Governor Gavin Newsome. Newsome will enter the race on a white horse from the West. He will have plenty of money and be a relatively new face (who has been in elected office since being elected San Francisco Mayor in 2003. (actually, even before that Newsome had been appointed to the San Francisco Board of Supervisors in 1997). A personal quirk of history that is little known is that Newsome had been married for four years to Kimberly Guilfoyle who is currently engaged to Donald Trump jr.
2. Vice President Kamala Harris. I simply can’t see Harris not running if Biden doesn’t run for re-election, but I also simply cannot see her winning the nomination because her poll numbers are even lower than Biden’s. She has done nothing so far in the Biden administration to distinguish herself as Vice President but simultaneously does not appear to have done anything to endear herself to Biden’s inner circle. Her campaign status will be weakened if she is not the only Californian or the only black running in the cycle.
1. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren. I confess that (for those of you that don’t already know this about me) I am supporter of Elizabeth Warren. In 2020 I was the Boulder County volunteer coordinator for her campaign and was an elected Warren delegate to the National Convention. In 2020 she was consistently polling among primary voters as the most qualified to be President of those running. She had a memorable (and brilliant) take down of Mike Bloomberg in his first debate appearance. Elizabeth Warren attacks ‘arrogant billionaire’ Michael Bloomberg over treatment of women | NBC News – YouTube and Elizabeth Warren Targets Mike Bloomberg For His Company’s Non-Disclosure Agreements | NBC News – YouTube. Perhaps the Democrats will be ready in 2020 to nominate a progressive who is ready to be President. I personally would love to see her debate Trump.
Others obviously will run as well. I expect Cory Booker, Jared Polis, Michael Bennet, John Hickenlooper, JB Pritzker and maybe even Stacy Abrams and/or Senator/Reverend Rapahel Warnack to run if they win their 2020 elections.