There is a map and a list that people should review before considering the upcoming presidential election.
First for the list. Here is a list of the ten closest states in the 2020 election. There are no other states where the winning margin was less than 7 percent. There are no other states where there appears to even be a chance of the other candidate winning in 2024. Biden won 7 of the 8 closest states and ended up winning the election with a total of 306 electoral votes to 232 for Trump. That is what people refer to when they say “battle ground states”. Most likely it will be the top 7 states on the list below that will be in play and determine the winner of the election.
- Arizona – Biden 49.36 %. Trump 49.06 %. Raw vote margin of 10,457 votes
- Wisconsin – Biden 49.45 %. Trump 48.84 %. Raw vote margin of 20,682 votes.
- Georgia – Biden 49.85 %. Trump 49.47 %. Raw vote margin of 11,779 votes.
- Pennsylvania – Biden 49.85 %. Trump 48.69 %. Raw vote margin of 120,555 votes.
- North Carolina – Trump 49.93%. Biden 48.59%. Raw vote margin of 74,483 votes.
- Nevada – Biden 50.06 %. Trump 47.67 %. Raw vote margin of 33,596 votes.
- Michigan – Biden 50.62 %. Trump 47.84 %. Raw vote margin of 154,188 votes.
- Minnesota – Biden 52.40 %. Trump 45.28 %. Raw vote margin of 233,012 votes.
- Florida – Trump 51.22 %. Biden 47.86 %. Raw vote margin of 371,686 votes.
- Texas – Trump 52.06 %. Biden 46.48 %. Raw vote margin of 631,221 votes.
Now for the map. Look at 270toWin – 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map
It is an interactive map that allows you to play with the results state by state. Remember it takes a total of 270 electoral college votes to win. If you start by making all of those ten states “toss-up” and you will start with Biden leading 216 – 149. I think Biden is going to win Pennsylania, Wisconsin and Minnesota and Trump is going to win Texas. That would bring the electoral college total to Biden leading 255 – 189. I believe that the surprise “tipping point” state will be North Carolina which was also close in 2016. The difference this year will be that there is a crazy MAGA guy running for Governor in North Carolina who will depress the Republican turnout and drive up the Democratic turnout. With North Carolina the electoral vote total goes to Biden winning 271 – 189. I worry about the results in Nevada and Arizona but think another surprise might come in Florida (which has remained close even though the Republicans have won most recent statewide elections there). This time there will be ballot measures calling for legalizing abortion and recreational marijuana to help drive voters.