“The committee approved moving South Carolina’s primary to Feb. 3 and having Nevada and New Hampshire vote three days later. Georgia would go the following week and Michigan two weeks after that.”
I don’t pretend to know how decisions are being made inside the Biden White House but it was quite remarkable that President Biden pretty much on his own changed the primary calendar and the DNC simply rubber stamped it. No longer will all the attention be focused on New Hampshire and Iowa. Iowa is out and New Hampshire might be going too. I suspect that New Hampshire is going to try to play chicken and schedule a primary for the week before Feb. 3 and the DNC will respond by threating to punish any candidate who campaigns there.
If Biden intends to run for re-election this plan ensures that he won’t have to worry about being surprised by a challenger in New Hampshire.
If Biden has decided not to run and wanted to give a boost to his Vice President, South Carolina will certainly be a more hospitable state to begin in that Iowa for Kamala Harris.
But I suspect it is something else. Biden is into “legacy” building and very much wants to be remembered as a consequential President. Being the person who finally ended Iowa and New Hampshire’s hegemonic control of the nomination process is really a pretty big deal. He also paid back his big favor to South Carolina Representative Jim Clyburn who more than anyone else was responsible for rescuing Biden’s otherwise moribund 2020 Presidential Campaign (after he had come in fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire. This is perhaps Clyburn’s legacy moment.
I don’t necessarily believe that this will result in the selection of a better candidate than the old way (see rule of unintended consequences) but I think this might really help the eventual nominee win the general election. In the past – for the six or so months before the first two primaries all of the candidates spent their time and money in New Hampshire and Iowa and the voters in those states got an early boost of enthusiasm for the eventual winner. The state party also got a lot of support and funding to build out its infrastructure. In Iowa right now that is just wasted as the State is no longer competitive. South Carolina of course is no more competitive in the general election than Iowa but Georgia, Nevada and Michigan are three of the most competitive states in the country and every little advantage might pay off big.
Now as to the rule of unintended consequences. If Biden does not run there are likely to be even more candidates running in 2024 than ran in 2020. The compacted start (only three days between South Carolina, Nevada and New Hampshire) might mean that the winner in South Carolina might not have enough time to parlay momentum into the next states. By the time the first five states vote (in a span of three weeks) there might be four or five separate winners all with resources to keep running and accumulating delegates.
But all that is only if Biden announces that he is not running.