Well the mid-terms are over, sort of. Still a runoff in Georgia and some counting and recounting to come in Nevada, Arizona and California.
All that we know for sure is that there was no wave. The Democrats very narrowly lost Senate races in Wisconsin, and North Carolina that could have given them enough seats to change the filibuster rule but appear likely to hold their majority (at least 50-50) and maybe pick up one additional seat if they win both Arizona and Nevada when the counting is done. (I am assuming Reverend Senator Warnock will retain his seat in the Georgia runoff next month). This is huge because it means Biden can continue to confirm Federal Judges and in the event of a vacancy in the Supreme Court he can get his nominee confirmed. The difference between being plus one and 50-50 is also significant because it means that the Dems will only need one of their two renegades (Sinema and Manchin) to pass majority only legislation. Sinema remains idiosyncratic but she is certainly less beholden to oil and gas (and coal) than Manchin and thus better on environmental issues and also will be facing a likely primary challenge if she runs for re-election in 2022. I wouldn’t be surprised if both of them announce that they won’t be running for re-election and thus remove themselves from political pressure.
In the House, I have been an outlier and an optimist throughout this process, but I think the Democrats are going to narrowly hold their House majority after running the table in close California races. Obviously, a Democratic majority will be extraordinary because (with a Dem majority in the Senate) they can pass a budget through reconciliation without negotiating with the Republicans. They will have the opportunity to (and must) build on the programs that began with the scaled back build back better bill of last year.
BIDEN AND PELOSI
Joe Biden will be 80 years old in 2 weeks and Nancy Pelosi is 82. The following is my hope whether the Dems end up with a narrow majority or in a narrow minority.
I hope that Pelosi waits until after the numbers are clear and then announces that she intends to serve one more term as leader (either as Speaker or minority leader) and sets out her goals and agenda AND that she will then retire and will not run for re-election to the House in 2024. Let the race for her House seat begin (I’ve heard her daughter Christine) is being groomed to run for her seat in San Francisco. Let the race for future leadership in the House begin. It would be nice if Hoyer (83 years old) and Clyburn (82 years old) gave up their leadership spots now so that the caucus can put the next leaders on deck.
I double hope that Biden will claim victory (the Dems won despite him not because of him) and announce that he is going to focus on doing the best job as possible as President for his final two years without being encumbered by running for re-election.
TRUMP
Trump will of course announce that he is running again for election as President and then of course that any criminal charges that are brought against him are just attempts to keep him from winning. The state charges in Georgia may still take a few months (the Grand Jury will still be hearing testimony) but the Federal charges should be coming soon. There is simply no way that DOJ cannot indict him for the documents that he withheld and lied about that were found in Mar a Lago. I kind of think the indictment will be broader and include conspiracy (RICO) and fraud charges stemming from January 6 too. Trump will have competition for the Republican nomination and will be fighting for his life against the criminal charges.
2024 DEMOCRATS
Let Biden enjoy the midterms for a while but hopefully he will wait until January and then announce that he is not running for re-election. I know many pundits are calling the midterms a big victory for Biden but truth is they won despite him not because of him.
Let the 2024 campaign begin. I am curious who besides those who ran in 2020 will run this time.