Remarkably, it is still anybody’s guess what will happen in the upcoming mid-terms. Most experts seem to think the House will flip to the Republicans and the Senate is now a toss-up. The reality is that the result is likely to be decided by a relatively small number of votes amidst a very large turnout. If things get really crazy Wisconsin will be close and Ron Johnson will refuse to concede, Arizona won’t really be close, but Blake Masters and Kari Lake will scream fraud and Raphael Warnock will not reach 50 percent so Georgia will head for another run-off. Then the interesting stuff will begin.
TRUMP ANNOUNCES
Trump’s team has already leaked his intent to announce his 2024 candidacy on November 14. I suspect that part of the reason will be to get the jump on the other Republicans who intend to challenge him for the nomination but primarily Trump will be trying to announce his candidacy before the Justice Department announces criminal charges so that he can claim that the criminal charges are just an attempt to stop him from running. There will be other Republicans announcing their candidacies (including Mike Pence and Ron DeSantis) but I expect them to wait until some of the dust from the mid-terms settles.
TRUMP IS INDICTED
I suspect that DOJ has already made its decision to indict Trump but has been waiting until after the midterms so as not to violate the unofficial rule against bringing political cases before elections. Trump will definitely be indicted for a variety of crimes stemming from his holding on to (and then refusing to return) classified documents. Those charges will likely include all three listed in the original Mar a Lago search warrant including 18 USC 1519 (obstruction of justice), 18 USC 2071 (willful concealment of public records) and 18 USC 793 (unlawful possession of defense information). These are serious crimes and in my opinion the evidence is pretty much open and shut. I expect Garland to also indict Trump (and many associates) for a wide-ranging conspiracy to obstruct congress and to defraud the United States (18 U.S.C. 371). All hell is going to break loose when Trump is indicted.
THE VIOLENCE BEGINS
The same people who planned and incited the January 6 insurrection have already threatened violence if Trump is indicted. I really worry about this while wondering how and where the violence will manifest (the attack on Speaker Pelosi’s home was an example of what might happen) and how the military and police will respond.
BIDEN DECIDES
I previously described my reasons for thinking that Biden will ultimately decide not to run for re-election. Why Trump will run in 2024 and Biden won’t – Left Coast View. I’m sure it will be a hard decision in large part because many of his advisors want him to run so they can remain in power. It is painfully obvious that Biden is not anywhere near as mentally sharp or physically strong as he was when he served as Vice President 10 years ago. But let’s be honest, Joe Biden will be 80 years old on November 20. Biden is an honorable man and a patriot (in many ways the opposite of Donald Trump) and the worst thing that could happen would be for him to tarnish his reputation by embarrassing himself during the campaign and losing to Trump.
THE CAMPAIGNS BEGIN
Trump will have a few months (maybe until January 2023) when he is the only candidate running for the Republican nomination. Certainly, he will use try to pressure Republican congressional office holders to pledge their support for him before others jump into the race. He is very likely to try to influence the selection of the Republican Congressional leadership races whether they are for majority or minority positions. Those races will begin almost immediately after the midterms.
For the Democrats, no serious challenger will announce their candidacy for President until after Biden announces what he is doing. However, the race for leadership in the House will begin almost immediately as Nancy Pelosi will announce that she is not seeking another term as Speaker (or minority leader). There will be a major fight between the corporate wing of the Democratic party (represented by Hakeem Jeffries) and supported by the Congressional Black Caucus, and the progressive wing of the Democratic party.
and finally THE RESULTS OF THE MIDTERMS
If the Republicans win even one branch of Congress the crazies will be in charge and in addition to investigating Hunter Biden, and impeaching Joe Biden and Merric Garland, they will try to defund the Justice Department to try to stop the prosecution of Trump. They will threaten to detonate the world’s economy by refusing to pass a budget unless their demands are met. If the Democrats hold both House and pick up the two seats in the Senate, they will try to pass progressive legislation and the Republicans will hold their breath until their faces turn blue as we wait to see how many of the new laws will be ruled unconstitutional by the right wing Trump appointed Supreme Court.
Oh yeah, interesting times.