The 2020 midterm elections are almost upon us (November 8 is 23 days ago) and remarkably no one can be certain what the results will be. The significance however cannot be understated. If the Democrats hold control of the Senate, they will at least be able to continue to control judicial confirmations. If magically the Dems gain two seats in the Senate they will have the opportunity to negate the influence of Manchin and Sinema and can change the filibuster rules to pass laws codifying Roe and restoring voter protection and civil rights laws. However, that of course can only happen if the Dems not only gain two seats in the Senate but also hold their majority in the House of Representatives. If the Republicans gain control of the House the crazies will be in control and the Republicans will spend all of their time investigating Hunter Biden and the FBI and impeaching Merrick Garland. Seriously it will be a giant shit show.
By most historical standards this should be a good cycle for Republicans. Traditionally the party in power loses seats during the first mid-term after the election of a new President. Biden’s approval ratings are almost as low as Trumps were before the 2018 midterms. The economy is shaky, and many people remain concerned about high inflation and likely recession. Additionally (finally) Republicans controlled the redistricting process in several big states. Yet, it remains possible that the Dems will squeak out victory.
Just like the Senate, this is not a “national” election but rather a collection of a small number of contested races. There are really only forty or less competitive House seats. There is not nearly as much polling in House races as there are in Senate races. There are many races that should have been won easily by a sane (though Conservative) Republican candidate that are close because the MAGA Trumpsters nominated very extreme candidates.
My prediction: As I said here https://leftcoastview.com/five-senate-seats-most-likely-to-flip/ I think the Democrats are going to win four seats in the Senate. In the House I think the Dems will hold their majority. there I said it.