It is often said that the midterm elections (especially 2 years into the first term of a President) are essentially a referendum on that president. When the country is dissatisfied with the incumbent or the direction of the country, they choose the opposition party to change course (or express their dissatisfaction). Thus in July when President Biden’s approval rating dipped below forty percent and inflation was roaring conventional wisdom predicting a coming “red wave” that would sweep the Republicans into control of both the House and the Senate. The Democrats best hope was that the perception of the economy would improve, that Biden’s approval rating would improve a little bit and that they could manage to turn the election into a “choice” election in which voters made a choice between continuing the direction of the Biden administration or allowing the return of the Trump agenda.
Things have turned out one step even better for the Democrats as the election appears to becoming a “referendum” on a second Trump administration. Yes, Biden’s approval rating has increased (up to 42.1 from his July low of 37.2) and the price of gas (the most pressing example of the burden of inflation) has dropped significantly but the most significant development has been the simultaneous victory in the Republican primaries of Trump supporting MAGA candidates, the barrage of news stemming from the search and seizure of classified documents that Trump had taken from the White House and hidden at Mar a Lago (in violation of law and of a grand jury subpoena) and Trump’s insistence on inserting himself into the campaign. (There was also the little matter of the Supreme Court’s Dobb’s decision that has apparently helped a little bit too).
The Democrats seemed poised to hold their majority in the Senate (I am still optimistic that they will gain at least two seats). It now appears that the results in the House will be close and there will certainly not be a big Republican landslide. It is hard (for me) to predict the House results with any certainty because I simply do not know the candidates in all of the contested races. Ultimately the House results will depend on the results in the maybe 58 House districts that have competitive races. The Cook Political Report has just released its district-by-district analysis (2022 House Race ratings | Cook Political Report) and projects that there are 32 true “toss up races (24 currently held by Democrats and 8 held by Republicans) and then another three Republican seats listed as lean Democratic and six Democratic seats listed as lean Republican. If each party holds the seats listed as “leaning” towards them and they split the tossups equally that would result in a Republican gain of eleven seats which would be enough for a very narrow majority.
That’s where the national mood takes over. Not only is Trump in the news going to motivate Democrats to turn out and Independents to turn against the Republicans but extremist MAGA candidates at the top of the tickets (like Doug Mastriano running for Governor in Pennsylvania, Kari Lake running for Governor in Arizona and Tim Michaels running for governor in Wisconsin) along with the horrible Senate candidates will likely propel the Democrats to hold the House majority too.
Yes you read it here.
On Labor Day (nine weeks before the 2022 midterm elections) I am predicting that the Democrats will hold their majority in the House and pick up at least two seats in the US Senate.