We are getting close to the midterm elections (barely three weeks away) and perhaps it’s time to review the status. The current Senate is split 50/50 with VP Harris breaking the tie to give the Democrats control. The Republicans need a net gain of only one seat to gain control. If the Republicans have 51 seats Mitch McConnell will be majority leader and the Dems will not be able to push any more judicial confirmations. Even if there is not a Supreme Court vacancy there are a growing slew of lower court nominations. There is no obvious Supreme Court vacancy coming up, but Clarence Thomas is 74 and Samuel Alito is 72. Nevada remains the only (currently) Democratic held seat that seems to be at risk of flipping. If the Republicans pick up that one seat the Dems will then have to win at least one (currently) Republican held seat. Pennsylvania (John Fetterman) remains the most likely Democratic pick up. The Democrats need to pick up a total of two Senate seats in order to negate the influence of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. With 52 seats the Democrats would be able to change the filibuster rule to pass bills with a simple majority. That of course will only matter if the Dems manage to hold the House.
Without further ado, here is my updated five senate seats most likely to flip. (prior version was posted on August 22. Five Senate Seats Most Likely To Flip (updated) – Left Coast View)
Number One: Pennsylvania (previous ranking number one): This race has gotten closer (much closer) but John Fetterman still leads in the polls and benefits from high favorable compared to relatively high unfavorables for celebrity (quack) doctor Mehmet Oz. Fetterman also benefits because the Governor’s race is shaping up as a blowout that will discourage Republicans from voting. This race seems likely to be baked in for a Democratic pick up. It was previously represented by Senator Pat Toomey who was a very right-wing Republican. Fetterman will quickly become one of the more progressives Senators in the Democratic caucus.
Number Two: Ohio (previous ranking number three): This race has become an absolute barnburner (Republican JD Vance currently leads in the RCP average by less than one percent) Tim Ryan is very much in the model of the winning Democrat candidate (a local born and raised pro worker populist ) who has run a good race and the Republican nominee JD Vance is exactly the model of the worst Republican candidate. Vance is a millionaire who does not even appear to be sincere in his Trumpism. Vance won a multi candidate primary with only 32 percent of the vote with the help of Trump’s endorsement despite having previously referring to Trump as an idiot and announcing that he did not vote for him in 2016. Vance has taken extreme positions on abortion having recently argued against exceptions for rape and incest with the absurd statement that “two wrongs don’t make a right”.
Number Three: Nevada (previously unranked): Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt seems to have taken a very narrow lead over Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. The most recent CNN poll (released on October 2) had Laxalt up by 2 points but a USA/Suffolk poll (released October 7) had Cortez Masto up by 2. This will be close and turnout will be determinative.
Number Four: North Carolina (previous ranking number four): Polling continues to show this race extremely close in a state that Trump very narrowly won in 2020 (by just 1 percent) and Senator Thom Tillis only barely won after the Democrat self-imploded in the last money of the campaign with a scandal involving leaked texts showing an affair that he had previously denied. So far, the Democratic candidate (former state supreme court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley) is running an almost flawless campaign and abortion might become the defining issue. Republican Ted Budd (like the other Republican anti-abortion extremists) calls for an outright ban without any exceptions.
Number Five: Wisconsin (previous ranking number two): Somehow incumbent Ron Johnson seems to have retaken control of this race with heavy outside spending attacking Mandela Barnes (falsely) as being soft on crime. If abortion is the major motivator Barnes will recover and win.
other (honorable mentions) Georgia is not on this list because Herschel Walker is just that bad of a candidate. Senator/Reverand Warnock should hold this seat although there is some question as to whether he will manage to get above 50 percent to avoid a runoff (there is a libertarian candidate who might get 2 percent of the vote). Florida is closer than many would have expected and shockingly late polls in Iowa show a close race there.
My prediction : Honestly, I am an optimist by nature but I think the polls are underestimate the Democratic turnout. In each of the above states, abortion and democracy will ultimately drive turnout. I truly believe the Democrats will end up winning all five seats and end up gaining four seats for a 54-46 majority control.