You might recall that I have never been as pessimistic as many about the prospects for the upcoming midterm elections.
Election Day (November 8) 2022 is now barely 15 weeks away.
Back in January I wrote It may not be as bad as you fear for the Dems in the midterms – Left Coast View with two prescient comments. “First and most importantly, the election will likely be about former president Trump as much as it will be about president Biden. Trump is still fully in control of the Republican party and is intervening in primaries around the country in many instances he is ensuring that the Republican candidates will be those who are most loyal to him and often are damaged candidates (like Herschel Walker in Georgia) or extremists who are repeating Trump’s lie that he won and was cheated in 2020.” “The goal of the House January 6 Committee appears to be to have prime time public hearings in the last months before the 2022 elections. Committee member Jamie Raskin has recently said that he expects the hearings will “blow the roof off of the house”. Obviously, the committee report and conclusions is not likely to change the opinions of those who currently believe that the Trump really won the election, but it is likely to motivate the Democrats and terrify those who might be undecided going into the election. Underlying the election will be the threat that the Republicans (if they control congress in 2024) will be able to pull off the coup that they tried in 2020.”
In February I wrote optimistically that conventional wisdom may be wrong – Left Coast View with the caveat “Things could change. The economy could be tanked. The world could be in war. Covid could be surging but….as things stand right now I think the Dems are actually likely to retain control of Congress.”
In June I wrote the midterms are coming – Left Coast View with a list of “four big factors that I think may give hope to the Democrats.” I urge anyone looking for reason to be hopeful to look back at that post.
It’s not a done deal for sure, the Democrats need to put their collective feet on the accelerator (pedal to the metal as it were) but frankly things look good to me.
The Senate: I believe that if the elections were held today, the Democrats would hold their two vulnerable incumbent seats (Nevada and Georgia) which means at least they maintain the ability to confirm judges and they will pick up at least one Republican seat (Pennsylvania) and maybe maybe Wisconsin (they have not held their primary yet so the nominee is not set). With a pick-up of two seats Manchin and Sinema lose their ability to control the agenda. Dems are opening up significant leads in fundraising and energy and if trends continue Maybe Ohio and North Carolina will fall to them to. (JD Vance is an absolutely horrible candidate in Ohio).
The House: Remarkably, despite the vast majority of the country thinking the country is heading in the “wrong direction” and that the economy is not good (I can’t say that I disagree with the majority on either point, there doesn’t at this point seem to be an inclination to blame the party in control of all three branches of government. A very recent New York Times / Siena College poll shows that voters prefer a generic Democrat over a generic Republican to control Congress by a narrow 41-40 percent margin. The four factors I wrote about in June seem very much to be the reasons why. 1) The Supreme Court decision in Dobbs (overturning Roe) is a very big deal. Even many of those who oppose abortion in theory understand that there needs to be exceptions for cases of rape, incest, life of the mother etc. When the abortion debate focused on the extreme pro-choice situation of late term abortions but now that we are talking about a ten-year-old rape victim the total ban being promised by many Republican candidates has become unacceptable. 2) The Republicans (with Trump’s help) have nominated many simply incompetent and unacceptable candidates. This may not matter in a deep Red State (remember even Roy Moore lost an Alabama Senate seat) but it certainly matters in closer states and districts. In addition to abortion extremist the MAGA Republicans have also succeeded in nominating many candidates who are repeating what most know to be a lie. 3) The January 6 committee hearings have been better and stronger than most of us expected. It has changed the narrative. leading to 4) Donald Trump is the gift that keeps giving. By deciding to announce his candidacy before the midterms (it seems to be almost just a matter of time) he is intentionally ensuring that he will dominate the narrative. He may (obviously) continue to motivate his MAGA base of supporters but he also motivates swing voters (moderate Dems and rational Republicans) to turn out against him.
As I have said repeatedly the midterm elections (just like the presidential election) are ultimately determined by voters in a small number (less than ten) of swing states and a relatively small number (maybe less than 75) of swing districts. It is the swing voters in those swing states and swing districts that will determine the outcome of the midterms. I think there is still one thing Biden and the Dems could do to increase their chances of holding the House but I will save that for a soon to be coming next post.