It is less than a half a year now until the critical 2022 midterm elections. Most people (especially those who are likely to read this) know that the US Senate is split exactly evenly (50-50) with VP Harris providing the tie breaking vote and the Democrats have just a tiny 13 seat majority (221-208) with six vacancies (5 previously Republican and 1 previously Democratic seat). By all traditional methods of projection, it looks to be a good year for Republicans, and many predict that they will take control of Congress.
- The party out of power normally picks up seats in the midterms especially in the first midterm after the election of a new President.
- The popularity of the President (specifically the unfavourability numbers) greatly influences the outcome. Biden’s favorability ratings are historically low. According to the RCP average of polls his approval rating is at 41 percent and his disapproval is at 54.3
- The state of the economy. This never really matters if it is the fault or result of any policy by the President or the party in power but voters traditionally take it out on the party in power if they are not happy with the state of the economy.
BY ALL OF THOSE TRADITIONAL MEASURES if the midterm elections are run primarily on the unpopularity of President Biden and the dissatisfaction about the state of the economy the Democrats will be heading to a significant loss in both chambers. However, there are four big factors that I think may give hope to the Democrats.
- Former President Trump remains equally unfavorable (especially among voters who will determine the outcome of the election). According to the same RCP average of polls Trump has an approval rating of 43.7 but an unfavorable rating of 51.2. I don’t think the unfavourability of a former president has mattered this much since 1934 when Herbert Hoover was blamed for the great depression (and the Dems under FDR picked up seats in the House of Representatives including 9 seats in the US Senate.
- The Republicans are nominating some of the most extreme nominees imaginable. This is similar to the 2010 midterms when the Republicans (of the so called tea party era) blew their chance to gain control of the Senate by nominating Christine O’Donnell (“I am not a witch”) and Sharron Angle.
- The January 6 committee will be holding 6 public hearings in June that are intended to focus attention on just how close we came to losing our democracy in the Trump coup attempt of 2020. These hearings don’t need to change the minds of any MAGA supporting Trumpist voters (it won’t) it merely has to scare and motivate a small number of (still remaining) rational Republicans. Truly if it moves just 2-3 percent of the electorate to switch from Republican to Democrat in the close districts and states that will be the difference maker.
- The upcoming Supreme Court decision reversing Roe v Wade after almost 50 years in which American women came to believe they had a constitutional right to safe legal abortions. It may be impossible to overstate how much this single issue is going to motivate the so-called suburban mom’s who are such a key swing constituency.
IF THE ELECTION IS FOCUSED on the risk to our democracy if the Republicans gain control of Congress that may be enough to allow the Democrats to retain control of congress.
The thing to remember is that the midterm elections are not a national election and (similar to the presidential elections) is not determined by the national popular vote. Control of the Senate will be determined in perhaps 10 swing states and maybe as few as only 50 contested House districts many of which were won by Biden over Trump in 2020.