The five Senate seats most likely to flip
- Pennsylania. Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Toomey is not running for re-election.
In 2020 Biden very narrowly won the state over Trump by a margin of 1.16 percent. In 2016 Trump beat Clinton by an even smaller margin of 0.72 percent.
Democrat John Fetterman has a substantial advantage because he is a real Pennsylanian. Republican Mehmet Oz narrowly survived a bitter primary and is incredibly unpopular. Fetterman starts out with a plus ten favorability rating (46 favorable to 36 unfavorable) and Oz starts out with an astounding negative thirty-three favorability rating among likely voters (30 favorable and 63 unfavorable).
2. Wisconsin. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson is running for re-election. Recent polling shows Johnson underwater with (37 % favorable/ 46 % unfavorable) and losing to his most likely (hopeful) Democratic Opponent Mandela Barnes by 46 – 44.
Johnson won election in 2010 with 51.9 percent of the vote and re-election in 2016 with just 50.2 percent of the vote. He is now caught up in the January 6 insurrection story and likely will not win again.
3. Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won election in 2016 with only 47.1 percent of the vote. none of the above with is an option in Nevada) Nevada does not require a winning candidate to get 50 percent of the vote.
Biden beat Trump in 2020 in Nevada by 2.93 percent (50.6 to 47.67) and in 2016 Clinton beat Trump by only 2.42 percent (47.92 – 45.50). President Biden is currently very unpopular in Nevada and Cortez Masto’s only chance for survival might be if abortion becomes the determinative issue.
4. North Carolina. Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr is not running for re-election. North Carolina has become a consistently competitive state in recent years.
In 2016 Trump beat Clinton by 3.66 percent (49.83 – 46.17). In 2020 Trump beat Biden by only 1.35 percent (49.93 to 48.59). In 2012 Romney beat Obama by 2.04 percent (50.39 – 48.35)
In 2020 Cal Cunningham the Democrat challenging incumbent Thom Tillis was leading in the polls until the last month of the campaign when he got caught up in a “sexting” scandal (he was married and ultimately admitted to having an affair with a married woman). Tillis ultimate narrowly won re-election by 1.75 percent (48.69 to 46.94)
This time the Democratic candidate is former North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley, and the race appears to be (predictably) close. A recent Survey USA poll has Beasley leading Trump supported/supporting Representative Ted Budd by a 44-40 margin.
5. Ohio. I know this might be a surprise because Georgia and Arizona are so much closer states, but Herschel Walker is such an incredibly weak candidate (Georgia) and Mark Kelly is such a strong candidate (Arizona) that I don’t think they are likely to flip.
On the one hand Ohio no longer appears to be a swing state.
Trump beat Biden in 2020 by 8 points (53.27 – 45.24)
Trump beat Clinton in 2016 by 8 (51.31 – 43.24)
Yet Obama beat Romney in 2012 by 3 points (50.67 – 47.69)
Yet populist (Democrat) Sherrod Brown has been elected and re-elected twice to the Senate (he won in 2018 by seven points and in 2012 by six points after winning the first time in 2006 by 12 points).
Moderate incumbent Republican Rob Portman is not running for re-election.
In Tim Ryan the Democrats have a candidate in the Sherrod Brown mold (working class roots, strong pro-labor voting record and rhetoric) and the Republicans nominated Trump supporting multi-millionaire J.D. Vance.
Current polling has Vance narrowly ahead (within the margin of error) and this race may be one that turns more than any other on the abortion issue. Vance has called the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe a “victory” and Ryan is promising to vote to change the filibuster in order to pass a national bill protecting abortion rights. I am still keeping an eye on Missouri. It has become a consistently Republican state by if disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens (currently ahead) wins the Republican primary this race to replace incumbent Republican Roy Blount (not running) might become very interesting.