There are really only five possible outcomes of the midterm elections.
- The Republicans win control of the House and the Senate. Nightmare scenario. Nothing good will happen. The crazies will be in control of the budget and will threaten default (refuse to pass debt ceiling increases unless Biden agrees to cuts in social spending). The House will hold impeachment hearings and appoint an investigative committee to mirror the January 6 committee to blame the Democrats. McConnell will refuse to confirm any new Supreme Court nominations and slow walk all lower court nominations.
- The Republicans win control of the House, but Democrats retain control of the Senate. Biden will be able to continue to get court nominees confirmed but nothing else of substance will be able to pass congress (or get out of the House). The House will still hold impeachment hearings and spend it’s time investigating Hunter Biden.
- The Republicans win control of the Senate but the Dems maintain control of the House. The least likely scenario. Nothing will get done including McConnell will refuse to confirm any new Supreme Court nominations.
- Everything stays the same. Everything stays the same. Manchin prevents the Dems from changing the filibuster and continues to block most progressive legislation.
- Dems maintain control of the House and pick up two additional seats in the Senate. With just two additional seats in the Senate the Dems may be able to overcome the Manchin/Sinema blockade and change the filibuster rule. With just two additional seats in the Senate (and maintaining control of the House) the Dems will be able to pass a national abortion rights bill, a voting rights bill, a gun control bill, and the remainder of the Build Back Better social spending agenda.
I expect that no matter what happens in the midterms Donald Trump will announce his candidacy for president and Joe Biden will announce that he will not be running for re-election. The 2024 Presidential campaign will begin in earnest in January 2023. There will be Republicans running against former President Trump including former Vice President Pence, former Governor Chris Christie and Texas Senator Ted Cruz.
I also believe that President Biden will announce that he is not running for re-election (also no matter what the result of the mid-terms). If the midterms go badly for the Democrats Biden will have his hands full dealing with impeachment and investigations in the House. If the midterms go well Biden will have his hands full (what’s that word oh yeah) governing. I think he is going to realize that he no longer has the energy for a national campaign and won’t want to risk whatever legacy he has by going out as the Democrat who lost to Donald Trump. There will be a large group of Democrats running including some who ran in 2020 (Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttegieg, Amy Kloubuchar and Cory Booker) and a few who did not run in 2020 including Colorado Governor Jared Polis, NYC Mayor Eric Adams and perhaps newly elected Georgia Governor Stacy Abrams.
I do not believe that Bernie Sanders will run for President a 3rd time, nor will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez run in 2024. Bernie’s best shot was in 2016 when he almost won the nomination despite starting the race primarily just to raise issues and push Hillary to the left. I believe that AOC will run for the NY Senate seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand.