The results of the (first round) of the Georgia Senate election was basically Raphael Warnock 1, 943,737, Herschel Walker 1,907,272 and the libertarian candidate 81,278.
It is possible that if Georgia used Ranked Choice Voting most of the Libertarian’s votes would have gone to Walker (no one really knows for sure) and he might have won but Georgia does not have RCV and most likely the 81 K that voted for David Valadao will not bother showing up for the run-off election. That means that even if everyone that voted for Warnock and Walker comes back a second time to vote Warnock would still win by 36K votes. Of course, not everyone who voted the first time will bother to vote in the run-off so the first order of business for the candidates is trying to turn out their voters. They are certainly not likely to get people who voted for the other guy to switch in one month.
The important number to look at though is that Brian Kemp got 2,110,328 votes which means that more than 200 K people voted for Kemp and not for Walker. I don’t know what the undervote was (those who didn’t vote at all for Senate) but obviously the big push for Walker would be to try to get some of the Kemp voters who didn’t vote for him to change their mind. I just don’t see that happening.
On the other hand, I assume there were a good number of Kemp voters who voted for Walker because they were already voting for Kemp but that might not bother to come back a second time to vote for a candidate they don’t particularly like. Warnock voters on the other hand are motivated and will come back.
Warnock is making a smart choice having former president Obama campaigning for him. Obama will help big time increasing turnout.
Walker is making a smart choice not having former president Trump campaigning for him. Trump would have just made his bad situation worse.